Prediction Markets Flood NFL Season with Celebrity Ads, Raising Sportsbook Acquisition Costs

The NFL season opened Wednesday night with a Super Bowl rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. Prediction markets have matched the on-field intensity with a wave of television, streaming, and social campaigns featuring prominent celebrities.

Novig enlisted Sydney Sweeney in a provocative spot. Betr reunited the stars of Entourage. Kalshi and Polymarket deployed their own celebrity-heavy efforts, including LeBron James for Polymarket alongside Eli Manning, Derek Jeter, and Sue Bird. These platforms are in their first full football season at scale and are spending hundreds of millions to build customer bases, echoing the sportsbook advertising surge of the early 2020s.

Prediction Market Ad Surge Reverses Recent Declines

Sportsbook digital ad impressions dropped nearly 14% in 2025, according to Sensor Tower data, as operators shifted toward profitability and states imposed tighter rules. Prediction market companies have reset the pattern. More than half of the digital sports betting ads seen through July came from firms not bound by state responsible gambling requirements.

The campaigns have drawn criticism. Novig’s Sweeney ad includes jokes about “balls” and contrasts its offerings with rivals by noting “no betting on wars, or deaths, and no politics.” Polymarket’s use of active NBA player LeBron James to promote sports contracts has also sparked debate. Entourage creator Doug Ellin called Betr’s ad “trash and theft.”

FanDuel plans promotions expected to cost roughly $270 million in adjusted EBITDA this year. DraftKings has focused marketing on states including California and Texas where sports betting is illegal and has run attack ads targeting Kalshi. BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt said prediction markets are soaking up marketing dollars, raising acquisition costs and lengthening payback periods. Citizens analyst Jordan Bender noted first-mover advantage will drive rapid customer acquisition “as we saw in sports betting.”

Regulatory Uncertainty That Could Reshape Ad Spending

The NFL has renewed multiyear partnerships with DraftKings and FanDuel and added Fanatics as a third official sportsbook partner. It has not signed a prediction market partner. How long the intensified spending lasts may turn on litigation. New Jersey asked the Supreme Court last week to decide whether states can regulate sports prediction markets as gambling after conflicting federal appeals court rulings. Similar cases involving Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and others now span roughly 20 states.

Bender asked whether these companies will “continue to irrationally spend” absent a Supreme Court ruling. The federal regulatory status of prediction markets has allowed aggressive marketing outside many state sportsbook restrictions, but that advantage sits atop unresolved legal questions. The outcome will set clearer boundaries on market access, compliance obligations, and competitive balance between prediction platforms and licensed sportsbooks.

Reporting: Legal Sports Report

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