Citizens Equity Research Finds Sportsbook Handle Shift to Prediction Markets Limited to 4 Percent and Potentially Easing
TL;DR — Citizens analyst Jordan Bender reports prediction market cannibalization of sportsbooks has stabilized at 4% of handle and may be easing. Dual-platform users increase sports betting spend by 27%. Bender flags positive NFL season signals and favors Flutter and Super Group equities.
SCCG Take — Prediction markets appear to expand the wagering ecosystem more than they erode sportsbook share. Operators with diversified models and strong cash positions hold structural advantages heading into accelerated fourth-quarter handle.
Prediction markets have drawn scrutiny as competitive threats to regulated sportsbooks, with associated stock declines at operators such as DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment reflecting those worries. A new client report from Citizens Equity Research concludes the cannibalization is not worsening and may in fact be moderating.
According to Casino.org News, analyst Jordan Bender cites Juice Reel data showing just 4% of regulated sportsbook handle has moved permanently to prediction markets. Bender states that these platforms are broadening the overall wagering audience.
Market Share Data and Bettor Spending Patterns
Bender notes that prediction markets now represent 11% of combined wagering across sports betting and prediction markets, up from essentially zero earlier last year. This establishes clear competition and has prompted increased promotional spending from operators including Flutter parent company.
Bettors who adopt both platforms tend to spend more. Bender points out that online sports betting wallet size increased 27% in the six months following adoption of an event contract platform. Prediction market volume data requires caution, however, because it is influenced by sharps, VIPs and whales often limited at traditional sportsbooks.
Stock Recommendations and Fourth-Quarter Outlook
Bender highlights Flutter as a name to own into the 2026 football season, citing leadership changes, rising sports betting market share and the company’s war chest of cash. The analyst also favors Super Group, which operates an iGaming-first model without U.S. sports bets and trades at a valuation discount with the clearest path to sustainable growth among covered names.
Bender notes, “Prediction market companies are successfully using marketing initiatives to bring new customers into the ecosystem who otherwise may not have entered the industry or would have eventually gravitated toward sports betting apps.” The report concludes that cannibalization not getting worse and customers spending more is a bullish signal heading into the NFL season, leading us to believe handle will start to accelerate in 4Q26E.
Reporting: Casino.org News
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
Prediction markets are growing the wagering pie, not shrinking sportsbook share — diversified operators with cash win.
We've been watching prediction market noise drive stock declines at DraftKings and Flutter. Citizens' data confirms what we suspected: 4% cannibalization is manageable, and dual-platform users actually bet more. Operators with strong balance sheets and diversified models hold the edge as Q4 handle accelerates into NFL season.
- Only 4% of sportsbook handle shifted to prediction markets; trend stabilizing or easing
- Dual-platform users increase sports betting spend by 27% within six months
- Flutter and Super Group flagged as strong buys heading into high-volume NFL quarter
SCCG angle: We help operators assess whether to integrate or partner with prediction market platforms, leveraging our relationships across 545 partners in every regulated market. For diversified operators, we identify M&A or licensing plays that strengthen cash positions and capture dual-platform bettor upside heading into peak handle periods.
Gaming, betting and prediction markets — the desk’s read, every weekday.
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