AGA Estimates Flat $29.5 Billion Legal NFL Betting Handle for 2026 as Prediction Markets Expand Nationwide

The American Gaming Association estimates Americans will legally wager $29.5 billion on the 2026 NFL season through regulated commercial sportsbooks. The projection shows no growth from last season’s $29.4 billion handle. As reported by G3 Newswire, this stall coincides with the rapid expansion of prediction markets offering backdoor sports betting across all 50 states and Washington, DC.

Bill Miller, AGA President and CEO, said: “We’re excited for the NFL season to kickoff, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting had seen tremendous growth. But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled.”

These platforms operate outside the regulatory frameworks governing sports betting in the 40 jurisdictions where it is legal. They also bypass prohibitions in the 11 states that have not legalized it. Sports bets make up about 80% of Kalshi’s volume, which includes an estimated $5.1 billion from users ages 18-20. That group is below the legal age in 35 of the 40 jurisdictions with legal sports betting.

The legal regulated gaming industry supports 1.8 million jobs and generates roughly $18 billion a year in sports betting tax revenue. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are estimated to have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025.

Miller added: “These prediction market platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment. Kalshi and other ‘prediction markets’ say they don’t need to follow state- and tribal-regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides.”

The Challenge to Regulated Market Growth

Since the start of last year’s football season, legal commercial sports betting handle growth has slowed significantly. This comes as the legal market continues to mature, and as prediction markets expand their sports offerings nationwide. The AGA urges fans to bet only with legal state- and tribal-regulated operators. With the NFL season approaching, the distinction between licensed sportsbooks and unregulated platforms directly affects tax revenue, job support, and consumer safeguards.

Reporting: G3 Newswire

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