Ninth Circuit Ruling Against Kalshi Creates Appellate Split in Prediction Markets as Football Season Opens and Responsible Gaming Month Launches
SCCG Take — The appellate split signals potential Supreme Court clarification on state authority over prediction markets. Operators should track litigation while aligning football promotions with responsible gaming efforts and monitoring sweepstakes exits.
The gambling sector this week is dominated by the legal fallout from a federal appeals court decision on prediction markets, the launch of football season, and the start of Responsible Gaming Education Month.
Ninth Circuit Ruling Creates Split on Prediction Market Authority
The Ninth Circuit ruled against Kalshi on Friday, siding with Nevada‘s authority to bar the company’s sports contracts. This decision creates a clear split with the Third Circuit, which earlier this year sided with Kalshi in its New Jersey case, as reported by Gambling Insider.
Officials in Rhode Island and Illinois have cited the Ninth Circuit decision as supplemental authority. An appeal involving Arizona, Kalshi and the CFTC was stayed pending the Nevada outcome. Washington and Crypto.com paused their case until the dispute was resolved.
The ruling emphasizes the longstanding role of states and tribes in regulating gambling and cites the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, which may bolster tribes’ arguments. It also rejected part of the CFTC‘s interpretation of Rule 40.11.
New Jersey faces a Sept. 3 deadline to seek Supreme Court review of the Third Circuit ruling. The split could strengthen its petition, though other pending appeals may shape the landscape first.
Legal pressure has not halted commercial expansion. Kalshi secured the exclusive prediction-market partnership for the US Open following its announcement of partnerships with five MLB teams.
Football Kickoff, Responsible Gaming Initiatives and Sweepstakes Pressure
This week marks the first full college football weekend, signaling a peak period for sportsbooks and rising competition from prediction market operators in states without legal sports betting.
DraftKings launches its Sept. 2 “DraftKings Gameday” campaign with offers across sportsbook, predictions and casino, plus free gas in Los Angeles, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta and Detroit. The promotion highlights its first football season with nationwide availability, subject to state-specific footnotes.
September marks the American Gaming Association‘s 28th year of Responsible Gaming Education Month. Hard Rock International and Seminole Gaming are expanding PlayersEdge with a campaign educating customers on randomness in gambling. DraftKings and FanDuel previously participated in AGA initiatives but have since left; their potential separate campaigns warrant attention.
Sweepstakes casinos remain under pressure. Operator shutdowns drew focus in August following earlier restrictions. Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier opened an enforcement front against Stake.us, VGW and payment processors. Oklahoma approaches its Nov. 1 restrictions, which may prompt early state exits by some operators.
Reporting: Gambling Insider
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
The circuit split tees up Supreme Court review while operators juggle football promos, responsible gaming optics, and sweepstakes uncertainty.
We've watched prediction markets go from fringe to flashpoint. The Ninth Circuit just handed states and tribes ammunition while Kalshi keeps inking deals. For our operator and tribal partners, this split changes compliance math in real time — especially as football traffic peaks and sweepstakes models face existential pressure.
- Ninth Circuit backs Nevada against Kalshi; Third Circuit sided with Kalshi — circuit split likely headed to Supreme Court
- Football season opens with DraftKings nationwide and Responsible Gaming Month adding compliance pressure
- Rhode Island, Illinois, Arizona litigation now references the Ninth Circuit ruling; tribal authority arguments strengthened
SCCG angle: SCCG has direct relationships with tribal regulators, state lottery and gaming commissions, and prediction market operators across both circuits. We're helping clients model jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction risk, align responsible gaming messaging with commercial calendars, and evaluate partnership opportunities as sweepstakes models face headwinds and prediction markets consolidate.
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