Kalshi And Polymarket Test CFTC’s Injury Contracts Stance With ‘Player Participation’ Bets

Kalshi and Polymarket are offering contracts on whether injured NFL players will participate in games, directly engaging one of the few clear boundaries the CFTC has set for sports prediction markets. No enforcement action has followed.

Earlier this month, Kalshi started offering markets on whether players will play in Week 1 of the NFL season. Players listed include those dealing with injuries but all but certain to play if healthy, such as Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty and Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love. The contracts were self-certified in February under the name “Will [athlete] compete in [event]?”

On Tuesday, Polymarket US self-certified “NFL American Football Player Participation Contracts.” The example contract is “Will Patrick Mahomes participate in the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 1 regular-season game?” That contract would depend almost entirely on Mahomes’ recovery from an ACL injury. Polymarket US said it “intends to list the Product no earlier than August 27, 2026.”

@DustinGouker posted verbatim on X: “Kalshi already lists similar to this and I wrote about it this morning!

Hedging/Trading/Betting On Whether Athletes Play https://t.co/g8O1G1npXX https://t.co/SDkxRpsPhZ pic.twitter.com/N5wjcZaryA”

@dan_bernstein_ posted verbatim on X: “Polymarket U.S. self-certified—and the CFTC has not opposed—NFL injury return date bets, per a filing today.

This appears to run directly against the CFTC’s own proposed rules for prediction markets (below) pic.twitter.com/0exZJTe46f”

CFTC Warnings on Injury Contracts

The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory in March stating contracts “that resolve or settle based on injuries to individual sports participants” may “create a heightened potential for manipulation or price distortion.” In June, proposed rules identified “player injury contracts” as likely against the public interest, along with officiating outcome contracts, discrete-action contracts involving specific participants, physical altercation contracts, and contracts on pre-collegiate sports events.

These categories are not exhaustive, and the CFTC retains case-by-case discretion. The proposed rules remain out for consultation after the comment window closed on July 27. The guidance is not yet in effect before the NFL season starts on Sept. 9, yet current rules appear broad enough for intervention. The CFTC has taken no steps to pause the live Kalshi contracts, which were self-certified before the March advisory and June proposals. The NFL called injury contracts “inherently objectionable” in a letter to the CFTC. As reported by InGame, spokespeople for Kalshi and Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.

Reporting: InGame

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