ACDC Research Identifies ‘Orcas’ on Polymarket with Insider Trading Patterns in Military Markets

New research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective has identified 152 wallets on Polymarket whose trading patterns in military markets fit a profile for potential insider trading. These wallets, drawn from a pool of 12,355 active in the space, generated more than US$8 million in winnings with average returns of 132 percent. The study, as reported by iGaming Future, questions when such activity crosses into a national security threat.

The Orca Profile

ACDC labels these accounts “Orcas.” The term describes highly specialized bettors who typically wager on only one or two market types and win 75 percent or more of their longshot bets. More than half made their first longshot bet within two days of creating an account. Longshots accounted for a larger share of their overall activity despite the high risk.

The report states: “Although Orcas spend less on the platform overall, most of their bets are longshots and the average volume exceeds that of Whales and Bots. Orcas earn the highest returns on their investment: Consistent with their high success rate, Orcas post far higher returns than Whales and Bots, an average of 132 percent compared with losses of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.”

These positions are routinely followed at scale by whales and bots, creating visible chains of activity on the public blockchain.

National Security Implications

David Szakonyi, ACDC co-founder and assistant professor of political science at Columbia University, said the national security implications are incredibly disturbing. “If the market can see and respond to this activity in real time, then so can military and intelligence agencies around the world. When highly capitalized wallets take big bets on outcomes that are first bought by potential insiders, it amplifies the leak of insider information in a way that is impossible to contain. It’s like the details of a classified briefing being live-streamed and reshared by the biggest accounts.”

Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, another author of the report, added that the roughly 150 wallets are far easier for law enforcement, the CFTC, the Pentagon or authorities overseas to investigate. But each investigation takes many months, during which time damage continues to be done. She called for Congress to pass an enforceable ban on the most problematic markets, including military events, government actions and elections.

The findings arrive amid multiple alleged insider trading cases tied to prediction markets, including a soldier charged with betting on a U.S. operation involving Nicolás Maduro and another accused of trading on U.S.-Iran airstrikes. A Trump teleprompter operator was also linked to bets using privileged speech details. These patterns underscore the speed with which sensitive information can propagate through public markets. Policymakers now face concrete evidence that real-time transparency can serve adversaries as readily as it serves traders. Clear statutory lines on prohibited contract types would limit exposure before further leaks compound.

Reporting: iGaming Future

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