Better Markets Urges CFTC to Heed CME CEO Terry Duffy on Manipulation Risks in Prediction Markets
TL;DR — Better Markets’ Dennis Kelleher urges the CFTC to address CME CEO Terry Duffy’s critique of prediction markets as easily manipulated gambling with no economic utility. Duffy cited specific insider trading examples and noted the CFTC has not blocked any of 2,500 self-certified contracts since January 2025. The call is to refocus on regulating the $500 trillion derivatives market.
SCCG Take — This reveals tension between innovation claims and traditional market oversight, signaling potential limits on prediction platforms if the CFTC reaffirms its boundaries.
Dennis Kelleher, Co-Founder, President, and CEO of Better Markets, has called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Innovation Advisory Committee to take seriously the concerns raised by CME Group CEO Terry Duffy over unregulated gambling prediction markets.
As reported by G3 Newswire, Kelleher described the recent committee meeting as little more than an echo chamber of industry talking points, many of them inaccurate. Duffy likened prediction markets to ‘carnival barkers at a circus.’
Duffy’s Specific Objections
Duffy highlighted how event contracts are easily manipulated by those with insider information. Examples include a soldier who allegedly profited from a contract on whether Nicolás Maduro would be captured and a teleprompter operator who allegedly profited from a contract on what President Trump would say. He pointed to contracts offering no economic utility, such as one on who will win the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest.
The CFTC does not meaningfully review these contracts before they go live. It has not opposed any of the 2,500 contracts self-certified since January 2025. Duffy has previously stated that prediction markets blur the line between investing and gambling. Craig Donohue, CEO of Cboe Global Markets, expressed parallel concern around trying to regulate sports betting and pop culture events as something called a swap on a CFTC-designed contract market.
Refocusing the Agency on Its Established Mandate
Kelleher acknowledged that Duffy, CME, Donohue and Cboe may have conflicts of interest and could be talking their book. That does not mean they are wrong. The CFTC is not a gambling regulator. It used to have credibility essential to regulating the $500 trillion derivatives market. It needs to return to that core mission rather than act as a cheerleader for unregulated nationwide gambling via so-called prediction markets.
Kelleher said the agency must stop being an industry toady and listen to people like Terry Duffy who speak truth to power.
Reporting: G3 Newswire
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
The prediction market party may be ending if the CFTC listens to its own regulated heavyweights over startup hype.
We've watched prediction markets sprint ahead on self-certification while the CFTC waved them through — 2,500 contracts since January without a single block. Now the establishment is pushing back hard, and if Duffy and Cboe get traction, the regulatory mood shifts fast. Operators betting on event contracts need to read this room carefully.
- CFTC hasn't blocked any of 2,500 self-certified prediction contracts since January 2025
- Duffy cited insider manipulation cases: soldier trading Maduro capture, staffer trading Trump remarks
- Better Markets urging CFTC to refocus on $500 trillion derivatives market, not event gambling
SCCG angle: If you're running prediction markets or considering launching event contracts, we help you read the regulatory weather and connect with compliance architects who've navigated CFTC shifts before. Our network includes advisors who understand where innovation ends and enforcement begins — critical as this debate heats up.
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