LRT Capital Discloses Long VICI Position Citing 10.5x AFFO Multiple and Compounding Growth
LRT Capital founder Lukasz Tomicki revealed a long position in VICI, noting the stock is priced more like a challenged bond proxy. Shares are down 6.1% year-to-date while the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Capped Index is higher by 11.35%. Q2 revenue grew 5.7% and AFFO/share grew 4.6% to $0.62 with 2026 guidance raised to $2.46.
SCCG Take — VICI offers yield plus modest growth via escalators without needing heroic performance, yet 72% revenue concentration in two tenants and unresolved lease talks create a clear overhang for gaming REIT exposure.
Lukasz Tomicki, founder of LRT Capital, has disclosed a long position in VICI Properties (NYSE: VICI). The portfolio manager described the stock as priced more like a challenged bond proxy, even as the broader real estate sector posts gains.
VICI shares are down 6.1% year-to-date while the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Capped Index has risen 11.35%. Tomicki highlighted continued growth in the underlying business. As first reported by Casino.org News, he noted on X that the REIT delivered Q2 revenue growth of 5.7% and 4.6% year-over-year growth in AFFO per share to $0.62. Management raised the low end of 2026 AFFO per share guidance to $2.46.
VICI operates under triple-net lease structures. Casino operator tenants cover rent along with property enhancements and maintenance.
Tenant Concentration and Rate Environment Risks
Tomicki acknowledged specific risks to the position. Equity-fueled acquisitions have proven difficult to execute on an accretive basis. A higher-for-longer interest rate environment could keep the growth engine suppressed.
Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) and MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) combine for 72% of VICI lease revenue. Nearly half that amount comes from the Las Vegas Strip, where VICI is the largest real estate owner. Ongoing regional casino master lease talks with Caesars remain unresolved after the second-quarter earnings season. The situation carries added complexity from Fertitta Entertainment’s $17.6 billion takeover bid for Caesars.
Valuation Path Without Heroic Growth
The current 10.5x AFFO multiple leaves room for normalization. At 12x to 14x, Tomicki sees potential share value between $29.50 and $34.50 from the August 18 close of $25.92. A dividend yield of nearly 7% supports returns even with modest AFFO growth from rent escalators and selective investment.
“The valuation is especially interesting because we don’t need heroic growth. Collect a ~7% yield, grow AFFO/share a few percent annually through rent escalators and selective investment, and even modest multiple normalization can generate attractive total returns,” Tomicki concluded. Operators and investors in gaming real estate will track lease negotiations and rate trends for signals on further multiple compression or relief.
Reporting: Casino.org News
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
VICI offers yield and escalators without needing heroics, but tenant concentration and rate pressure create real overhang for gaming REIT exposure.
We've placed capital, advised on property deals, and negotiated master leases across VICI's tenant base for decades. When a gaming REIT trades like distressed debt while fundamentals compound, it signals either dislocation or structural risk — and with Caesars-Fertitta unresolved and 72% revenue in two names, both are in play here.
- VICI down 6.1% YTD while broader real estate up 11.35%; trading 10.5x AFFO vs. historical 12–14x
- Q2 AFFO/share up 4.6% to $0.62, 2026 guidance raised to $2.46, ~7% dividend yield
- Caesars and MGM represent 72% of lease revenue; regional master lease talks with Caesars still unresolved
SCCG angle: SCCG has structured sale-leasebacks and partnered with REITs and operators in every major jurisdiction. If you're modeling property separation, tenant credit, or lease negotiations in this environment, we connect you to the landlords, lenders, and counsel who've done the hardest deals in gaming real estate — no theoretical playbook, live scar tissue.
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