World Cup Betting Volumes Signal Strong NFL Season Outlook for Sportsbooks and Prediction Markets
TL;DR — The 2026 World Cup drove a 650% bet increase at DraftKings, a $2.9B estimated handle, and nearly $1.9B in Kalshi volume. Geoff Zochodne expects most activity to transition to the NFL, with prediction markets gaining three million users. Legal challenges between states and the CFTC create uncertainty for event contracts.
SCCG Take — Prediction markets used the World Cup to enter non-sports-betting states and build user bases. NFL-season access in California and Texas now hinges on pending court rulings that could reshape channel competition by 2030.
The 2026 World Cup produced a sharp rise in U.S. sports wagering. Covers.com senior news analyst Geoff Zochodne detailed the scale in an interview with SBC Americas. DraftKings reported a 650% increase in total bets versus 2022 while BetMGM identified the Spain-Argentina final as the most-bet soccer match in its history.
H2 Gambling Capital estimated $2.9 billion wagered on the tournament. That total more than doubles the $1.3 billion recorded on soccer at legal sportsbooks in June and July 2025. Zochodne described the figure as relatively large given the difficulty of isolating exact year-over-year changes.
Several structural shifts explain the increase. Ohio, Kentucky and Massachusetts launched regulated sports betting after the 2022 event. Ohio went live on 1 January 2023. Prediction markets expanded the addressable base further. Kalshi generated nearly $1.9 billion in trading volume on the winner market, almost four times the $500 million traded on the most recent Super Bowl.
NFL Carryover and User Retention
Zochodne expects the World Cup participants to return for NFL betting. The typical American sports bettor engages with football. State-regulated sportsbooks therefore face a virtual certainty of renewed handle. Prediction markets captured the largest incremental gain. Kalshi added three million users during the tournament. Those accounts now operate in states without sports betting, including California and Texas, where the platforms function as the primary channel.
Zochodne anticipates limited sustained interest in league soccer such as the English Premier League. The next spike will likely require the 2030 World Cup, driven by similar factors of domestic hosting and national-team participation.
Regulatory Uncertainty for Event Contracts
States increasingly classify sports event contracts as sports betting and move to restrict them. Prediction markets maintain that only the CFTC possesses oversight. The agency has filed suit to block state enforcement. Outcomes for the NFL season remain unresolved because courts have not yet ruled on the core jurisdictional dispute. Nevada and Michigan, the jurisdictions with the strictest limits, already host legal sportsbooks and therefore present limited incremental population exposure.
Zochodne expects clarification before 2030. A Supreme Court decision in either direction would determine whether prediction markets retain access to tentpole events or pivot entirely to elections, entertainment and economic contracts.
Reporting: SBC Americas
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
Prediction markets used the World Cup to crack non-betting states—now courts will decide if they keep NFL access.
We're watching a structural shift: Kalshi built a three-million-user beachhead in California and Texas while sportsbooks doubled handle in new states. The NFL carryover is guaranteed for operators, but prediction markets face state-versus-CFTC battles that will define channel boundaries through 2030. SCCG tracks every regulatory move because our partners need to know where the lanes are.
- $2.9B World Cup handle, nearly double June–July 2025 soccer totals
- Kalshi traded $1.9B on winner market, added 3M users in non-sports-betting states
- States challenge CFTC jurisdiction over event contracts; NFL-season rulings pending
SCCG angle: SCCG helps operators and prediction platforms map state-by-state regulatory risk in real time. Our network includes counsel, compliance teams, and regulators across every U.S. jurisdiction—we connect clients to the expertise that turns court calendars and enforcement signals into go-to-market strategy before competitors move.
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