Kalshi Combo Bettor Losses Masked by Blended Data Against Opposing Flow

Bloomberg reported that Kalshi parlay players have lost a net $294 million since the start of the year. That figure is accurate but incomplete. It combines two distinct groups of takers on the exchange’s combo markets, and separating them shows parlay buyers on the YES side lose at two to four times the headline rate.

Gambling Insider rebuilt the calculation from public data and isolated the flows. The result challenges the narrative that competition among market makers delivers bettors a superior product to sportsbooks.

Distinct Outcomes for YES and NO Sides

Over the fortnight from July 14-27, parlay buyers staked $226 million and lost $79 million, equating to 35 cents per dollar wagered. Excluding the World Cup final day, on which they lost 86 cents per dollar, the rate was still 16.6 cents per dollar. By comparison, the NO side staked $204 million and gained $43 million, or 21 cents per dollar.

Blended together, takers lost 8.4 cents per dollar. That matches the year-to-date rate of roughly 9 cents lost per dollar and sits below the 19-21 cents sportsbooks hold on parlays per regulatory filings from New Jersey and Maryland. The blend nets buyer losses against NO-side gains, producing a misleading average.

Counterarguments and Data Limitations

Market makers contend that competition improves pricing for customers. Leonidas Mastrokostas told Bloomberg that bettors ultimately lose less under such conditions. Yet that claim holds only on the blended basis. Isolated, buyer losses meet or exceed sportsbook levels even before Kalshi transaction fees.

A significant portion of NO-side volume reflects early exits rather than fresh bets against parlays. On a tested sample day, 40 percent of NO volume occurred within an hour of settlement, versus 4 percent of buyer volume. This flow benefits market makers capturing the spread on positions cashed out for less than full value. The public data cannot fully separate professional positioning from exits, and single days can be skewed by large individual markets.

The Real Ledger for Market Participants

The analysis underscores that headline figures flatter prediction market products by offsetting recreational bettor losses with professional or exit-side gains. For operators and regulators, this distinction matters when assessing customer harm and product fairness. As volumes grow, reliance on blended metrics risks understating the economic reality for the parlay buyers the offerings target. Closer scrutiny of segmented flows will shape how these markets are supervised and positioned going forward.

Reporting: Gambling Insider

Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.