Prediction Market Routing Pathways and the Limits of Independent DCM Ownership
TL;DR — Marantelli details how prediction market order flow reaches DCMs via self-operated platforms or FCM routing, with the latter group shrinking as Fanatics acquires its own DCM. Over 125 firms chase Kalshi while independent ownership still requires robust routing for cross-venue pricing competitiveness.
SCCG Take — DCM ownership shifts but does not eliminate routing needs. Operators and investors must secure cross-venue liquidity connectivity to avoid losing flow in fragmented RFQ environments.
Bernard Marantelli of White Swan Predicts reports that his firm went live on another prediction market this week, with more integrations under development. The sector shows no signs of slowing. Marantelli notes the firm is tracking 125+ companies pursuing Kalshi’s position.
Most order flow reaches a DCM through one of two routes. Platforms either operate their own markets, including Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket, or they route orders as FCMs. The latter category is contracting.
Shrinking FCM Dependence
Fanatics recently bought a DCM outright. Marantelli expects additional FCM licensees to pursue the same path. “nobody wants to stay permanently dependent on someone else’s exchange.”
Why Routing Layers Remain Essential
Ownership of a DCM does not remove the need for a routing and liquidity layer. It simply alters the layer’s function. Marantelli states that “owning your own DCM doesn’t remove the need for a routing and liquidity layer — it just changes what that layer has to do.”
Independent quoting of RFQs allows customers to compare prices across venues in seconds. Pricing that is not connected and competitive loses the flow. White Swan Predicts maintains routing connectivity into every RFQ venue shown on its map. This keeps pricing competitive on either side of the DCM/FCM distinction.
The accompanying graphic maps routed flow through FCMs into host DCMs such as Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket US, alongside independent DCMs and onchain decentralized venues. As the market matures, connectivity across these venues will determine which participants retain order flow.
Reporting: White Swan Predicts / SCCG research
Generated by SCCG’s automated editorial system from published source reporting. Automated fact-checking and editorial checks run before publication; individual articles are not reviewed by an editor beforehand. SCCG Management holds editorial responsibility.
Owning a DCM cuts dependency but doesn't kill routing — competitive cross-venue pricing decides who keeps the flow.
We track prediction markets because they're the new frontier for real-money engagement and regulated event betting. As 125+ operators chase Kalshi and FCMs buy their own exchanges, the strategic question shifts from license type to liquidity connectivity. Fragmented RFQ environments reward operators who route intelligently across every venue — owned or not.
- Fanatics acquired its own DCM; more FCM-licensed firms expected to follow
- 125+ companies now pursuing Kalshi's position in prediction markets
- DCM ownership changes routing needs but doesn't eliminate them — cross-venue liquidity remains essential
SCCG angle: SCCG has placed liquidity, compliance, and exchange infrastructure partners across regulated U.S. markets. If you're building or buying into prediction markets, we connect you to the DCM operators, routing tech, and FCM advisors who understand how flow moves when the landscape fragments. We've done it in sports betting; we're doing it here.