DraftKings Reports 1% Customer Overlap with Kalshi as Prediction Markets Approach $1 Billion Monthly Volume

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins disclosed only a 1% customer overlap between the operator’s sportsbook and Kalshi users in states where sportsbooks are legal. Robins made the statement in a letter to shareholders accompanying the company’s second-quarter results, according to reporting by InGame. He added that the vast majority of prediction market volume in those states comes from professional betting syndicates and institutional traders.

The analysis relied on deposit data including debit and credit transactions reviewed by analytics firm Carbon Arc. “We continue to see only about 1% customer overlap between our sportsbook and the largest prediction market operator in sportsbook states,” Robins wrote. “Based on internal analysis, we estimate that 80% to 90% of prediction market consumer volume in sportsbook states comes from professional betting syndicates and institutional traders, which is volume that mostly would not have been on Sportsbooks to begin with.”

Sports revenue declined 11.7% to $891.9 million. Robins said cannibalization from prediction markets was not a factor.

Prediction Market Performance

In July, annualized total volume on DraftKings Predictions reached $11 billion, implying monthly volume just under $1 billion. That represents an almost 600% increase since April, though it trails Kalshi’s more than $40 billion traded in the month. Robins noted that DraftKings was market making on three exchanges and launched its in-house exchange in early June, with most trades still routed through Crypto.com.

He expressed confidence that DraftKings will extract comparable lifetime value from prediction market customers as from sportsbook users over the next several years. Ownership of a market maker, an FCM, and the exchange itself provides a structural edge, Robins wrote. “While revenue per customer may be lower than our sportsbook offering, the higher-margin profile of the business supports a similar level of gross profit per customer over time.”

Financial Results and Market Implications

DraftKings recorded a $67.6 million loss in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $115 million. Shares declined 1.6% to $21.81 in after-market trading and are now down more than 50% over the past year.

Chief Financial Officer Alan Ellingson stated that the core business is on track for approximately $1 billion of Adjusted EBITDA this year. DraftKings maintained fiscal year 2026 guidance for revenue of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $900 million.

The data illustrates a clean segmentation between retail sportsbook users and the professional flows dominating prediction markets. This reduces concerns around direct cannibalization while surfacing distinct operational and compliance considerations as CFTC rule proposals on market makers move forward. This customer divergence is expected to influence product design and liquidity strategies in the quarters ahead.

Reporting: InGame