U.S. Prediction Markets Approach $2 Billion Daily Volume in July on World Cup Momentum
TL;DR — Prediction markets reached $1.91B ADV in July, up 9% sequentially, with the World Cup driving $20B total volume. Sports held 76% share while Rothera and other platforms gained traction amid volatility. Major deals including IG Group’s $1.3B Underdog acquisition closed the month.
SCCG Take — This volume spike and deal flow mark a structural shift, but operators must mitigate reliance on event catalysts to capture durable value ahead of midterms.
U.S. prediction markets pushed average daily volume to $1.91 billion in July, coming within striking distance of the $2 billion mark. The 9% sequential jump in turnover on all-or-nothing exchanges reflected both sports-driven activity from the 2026 FIFA World Cup and gains in non-sports categories, according to Casino.org News.
The World Cup generated a record $20 billion in prediction market volume, easily topping the $3.6 billion tied to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Sports ADV climbed 12% month-over-month to $1.333 billion and captured 76% of total ADV. Non-sports ADV rose 5% to $424 million. Open interest declined, however, with sports OI at $1.16 billion and non-sports at $423 million.
Platform Gains and Weekly Volatility
Rothera, the partnership between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, delivered $70 million ADV, up 24% sequentially and equal to 3.7% of industry volume. Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon noted: “Other platforms that we track had $161 million ADV (-6% m/m; +26,588% y/y), with market share coming down to 8% of industry ADV (from 10% in June).” He added that Rothera’s weekly ADV peaked at $137 million before falling to $8 million once World Cup contracts rolled off.
This volatility underscores a limitation in the current surge. While year-over-year growth appears explosive, the post-event drop in both open interest and certain platforms’ volumes highlights dependence on singular catalysts rather than steady baseline liquidity.
Deal Activity and Market Risks
July also brought corporate movement. Fanatics acquired a regulated exchange and clearinghouse from BGC Group to internalize operations. Unconfirmed talks of a Crypto.com-Robinhood partnership circulated. The month closed with IG Group’s announcement of a deal worth up to $1.3 billion to acquire Underdog.
These transactions coincide with the volume spike and suggest accelerating convergence in the sector. With midterm elections three months away, non-sports activity may rise further. Yet the risk lies in assuming event-driven peaks will persist without deeper product and regulatory alignment.
In my three decades advising client-partners on gaming and securities matters, such inflection points reward those who build beyond temporary catalysts. The coming months will test whether the infrastructure can sustain traction once the World Cup spotlight fades.
Reporting: Casino.org News
Volume surged on sports, deals accelerated, but post-event collapses prove one-off catalysts won't build durable liquidity without better infrastructure.
We've tracked 30 years of event-driven spikes that fizzle. This $20B World Cup bump and IG's $1.3B Underdog buy signal category maturation — but Rothera's 94% weekly drop post-event tells the real story. Midterms offer a second test; only platforms with baseline product depth will retain users.
- $1.91B ADV in July, up 9%; World Cup drove $20B total volume, sports held 76% share
- Rothera peaked at $137M weekly ADV, then crashed to $8M once contracts expired
- IG Group acquired Underdog for $1.3B; Fanatics bought BGC exchange/clearinghouse
SCCG angle: SCCG connects prediction platforms to the product, tech, and risk partners who solve retention after the headline fades — we've placed liquidity, compliance, and UX teams with operators in every regulated U.S. market to turn event traffic into repeatable engagement.