Italy’s Agenzia delle Entrate Forecasts €807m Gambling Tax Boost for 2026 as Meloni Accelerates Pre-Election Licensing and Advertising Reforms

Key Takeaways

• €807m upward revision: Agenzia delle Entrate has adjusted 2026 gambling income expectations higher following 2025 account closure.
• €6.66bn delivered in 2025: Non-lottery licences contributed this amount, equating to 1 percent of Italy’s €668bn total tax take.
• 52 online concessions: New licensing regime launched November 2025 is projected to generate €365m.
• Marginal rate hikes: Online and retail GGR taxes rise by 0.5 percentage points in most segments, expected to yield over €500m in extra annual revenue.
• Meloni timetable: Unified land-based framework and new advertising rules targeted for delivery by end of August ahead of 2027 elections.

“The upwards projections reflects significant changes to the Italian online gambling market, launching its new licensing regime as of November 2025.”

As reported by SBC News, the Agenzia delle Entrate has closed Italy’s 2025 State Budget accounts with a favourable opinion on gambling taxes. Non-lottery licences generated €6.66bn in taxes and duties in 2025. This represents around 1 percent of the government’s overall tax revenue of €668bn.

Income taxes contributed €346bn while business taxes including VAT and excise duties delivered €320bn. State concessions covering lottery, instant win games and machine gaming produced €22.28bn for the Ministry of Finance to support cultural, civic and sports programmes.

Upward Revision in 2026 Gambling Income Expectations

At the signing of the accounts the tax office lifted its 2026 forecast by an additional €807m. The revision is tied directly to the relaunch of the online market. The ADM granted 52 online concessions that are now expected to contribute €365m in projected income.

This outcome demonstrates how licensing reform can translate into measurable fiscal upside. The figures underscore a deliberate policy choice to expand the regulated base rather than rely solely on rate increases.

Modest Tax Rate Increases and Projected Revenue Gains

Budget Law 2025 introduced targeted adjustments. Gross Gaming Revenue tax on online sports betting and virtual betting moved from 24 percent to 24.5 percent. Online casino, poker and bingo taxation rose from 25 percent to 25.5 percent. Retail sports betting increased from 20 percent to 20.5 percent while virtual betting shifted from 22 percent to 24.5 percent.

The tax office calculates that these combined measures will generate more than €500m in additional annual tax revenue. Such incremental changes reflect a calibrated approach that seeks to capture upside without destabilising operator economics.

Early 2026 Tax Receipt Moderation and Underlying Causes

Recent Ministry of Economy and Finance data introduces a cautionary note. Between January and April 2026 gambling tax receipts reached €2.52bn, a 7.8 percent decline versus the prior year. The drop stems from reduced income on land-based gaming machines and the halving of sports betting concessions after the regime change.

This moderation highlights execution risk in any major licensing transition. Public finances have remained resilient overall, yet sustained declines could test the assumptions baked into the 2026 uplift.

Meloni Government’s Accelerated Push for Land-Based and Advertising Reform

The second half of 2026 brings further transformation. MEF Deputy Minister Maurizio Leo is finalising negotiations with regional authorities on the Reorganisation of Land-based Gambling Decree. The goal is a unified licensing framework across Italy’s 20 regions, though compensation for lost regional income from existing concessions remains unresolved.

Sports Minister Andrea Abodi is preparing legislation to repeal and replace the 2018 Dignity Decree’s advertising ban. New Italian Football Federation President Giovanni Malagò has proposed a 2 percent levy on football betting revenue to fund grassroots football, stadium upgrades and youth development. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has pressed both ministers to finalise the bills by the end of August for inclusion in the 2026 Budget, ahead of the 2027 election cycle.

From a commercial standpoint this pre-election timetable creates a defined window for clarity. Operators and investors must weigh the fiscal upside against potential delays in regional compensation agreements.

The Pre-Election Regulatory Calculus

Coverage to date properly flags the revenue optimism and licensing milestones yet underemphasises how regional compensation disputes could delay true unification and affect investment timing. When viewed through an operator lens the Italian path of modest rate increases plus structured reform offers a measured model.

It stands in instructive contrast to heavier tax burdens seen in certain LATAM markets that have already prompted gray-market migration, and to the fragmented political negotiations familiar in US state regulatory cycles. Client-partners should track August deliverables closely. The resulting framework will signal whether Italy can convert regulatory inflection points into sustainable growth before the election cycle resets the board.