Bitcoin’s recent surge to an all-time high of $99,655 on November 22, 2024, fueled widespread speculation that it would surpass the $100,000 mark by month’s end. This optimism was reflected in prediction markets like Polymarket, where the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 reached 91%. However, a market correction ensued, with Bitcoin’s price dipping to a low of $90,800 on November 27 before closing the month near $98,000.
This volatility had significant financial repercussions for traders who bet on Bitcoin crossing the $100,000 threshold within November. Notably, a trader known as “TomApproves” placed a $114,000 wager on this outcome, resulting in a substantial loss. Another anonymous trader incurred a loss of nearly $56,000 on a similar bet. The total trading volume for this prediction on Polymarket reached $28.5 million, highlighting the high stakes involved.
Despite these setbacks, market sentiment remained optimistic. Prediction platforms like Kalshi estimated an 85% probability of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 by the end of the year, with a 9% chance of reaching $150,000. Analysts attributed this confidence to factors such as increased institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which historically has led to price increases.
This optimism was validated on December 4, 2024, when Bitcoin’s price finally broke through the $100,000 barrier, reaching a peak of $103,713. This milestone was influenced by President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of crypto advocate Paul Atkins to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission, signaling a potentially more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets.
In summary, while Bitcoin’s failure to breach the $100,000 mark in November led to significant losses for some traders, the eventual surpassing of this threshold in December underscores the cryptocurrency’s volatility and the speculative nature of betting on short-term price movements. Investors are advised to exercise caution and consider the inherent risks associated with such investments.
