As the 2024 college football season approaches, the landscape of the sport is undergoing one of the most significant shifts in recent memory. Conference realignments are shaking up the status quo, with powerhouse conferences like the SEC and Big Ten bolstering their ranks by adding more high-profile teams. This reshuffling will create a more competitive environment at the top of college football, but it will also have a ripple effect on sports betting markets.
The SEC and Big Ten: Powerhouses in a New Era
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) and the Big Ten have long been considered the elite conferences in college football. In 2024, these conferences will be even more formidable as they welcome additional high-caliber programs. For the SEC, the additions of Oklahoma and Texas—two of the most successful programs in college football history—promise to strengthen the conference’s dominance. Meanwhile, the Big Ten is making waves by bringing in traditional Pac-12 powerhouses—USC, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon—enhancing the conference’s footprint on the West Coast and bolstering the competition level.
These big changes are not just about adding more teams—they are about adding more value. The SEC and Big Ten now command an even larger share of the national spotlight, more media rights dollars, and a greater presence in the College Football Playoff (CFP) race. As these conferences grow stronger, we can expect a shift in the balance of power in college football, with the SEC and Big Ten consistently fielding multiple CFP contenders and capturing top recruiting classes.
How Will This Affect Sports Betting?
With more marquee matchups between top-tier teams, bettors will find themselves navigating an increasingly complex landscape. The stakes will be higher, and the competition tighter, resulting in sharper betting lines and increased volatility in wagering outcomes.
Several factors will influence betting in this new era of college football:
1. Increased Betting Volume: As top programs such as Oklahoma, Texas, USC, and UCLA join the SEC and Big Ten, the frequency of high-profile games will increase. These matchups tend to garner higher betting volumes due to the national attention they draw. Games like Alabama vs. Texas or Ohio State vs. USC will dominate sportsbooks, driving interest and engagement.
2. More Data, Yet Higher Uncertainty: Bettors will have more data at their disposal due to the wealth of information at their disposal. Nevertheless, the heightened competition will make outcomes less predictable; new rivalries and unfamiliar matchups which stem from changing dynamics within the conferences will make it more difficult to handicap games, especially early in the season when teams are adjusting to new environments.
3. Expanded In-Play Betting Opportunities: As elite matchups become more common, sportsbooks will likely expand their in-play betting options as this market will likely see significant growth.
4. Impact on Futures Markets: It is plausible to assume that future betting markets will also experience shifts, especially the conference championships and the CFP. With the SEC and Big Ten becoming even more superior, bettors will likely gravitate towards these two conferences when placing bets, consequently establishing an imbalance in these future markets. In reality, bettors will need to consider whether the odds of winning reflect the true probability of these teams or if there is value in betting on dark horses from other conferences.
The Bigger Picture
While the SEC and Big Ten will benefit from these realignments, the impact on other conferences cannot go unnoticed. Traditional power conferences like the ACC and the Pac-12 will face challenges in maintaining their relevance on the national stage. For sportsbooks, this means that betting interest in games outside of the SEC and Big Ten may decline, shifting the focus towards the aforementioned powerhouse conferences.
At SCCG Management, we see this as an opportunity for sportsbooks to innovate. With increased competition and volatility in the market, sportsbooks can offer new prop bets, specialized betting options for specific conferences, and promotions that engage fans across the country. The realignments may reshape college football, but they also create a dynamic environment for bettors looking to capitalize on the excitement.
