In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Aston Villa face Arsenal at Villa Park on Saturday at 12:30 in the Premier League. Villa give up clear shooting opportunities. Their non-penalty xGA ranks 15th. They allow 9.3 shots and 3.29 shots on target at home. Big chances conceded sit at three. Defensive structure drops when runners arrive late into the box.
Arsenal travel with the top non-penalty xG ratio and highest touches in the box. They take 12.29 shots per match away with 4.9 inside the area. Territory and pressure stay high through long spells.
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Mikel Merino is expected to continue in the advanced role. Viktor Gyokeres is being eased back into the starting eleven. Merino delivered three shots and two on target against Tottenham, then three shots and one on target against Brentford. Five of his 12 shots this season are headers. That profile carries value against a Villa side conceding aerial chances in the box.
Arsenal lack key centre backs who usually act as primary set-piece targets. That places greater attacking responsibility on Merino in dead-ball situations. He is positioned to attack near-post zones and loose second balls.
Merino one or more shots on target suits the matchup, his current usage and the expected game state at Villa Park.
- Best Bet: Mikel Merino over 0.5 shots on target at 10/11 with Betway
Everton vs Nottingham Forest
Michael Keane to have at least one shot profiles well when Everton face Nottingham Forest at Goodison Park on Saturday in the Premier League. The game features two sides with strong set-piece profiles, which gives Keane clear involvement in attacking phases.
Everton rely heavily on dead-ball creation. 42% of their shots come from set pieces, the second highest share in the league. They have 5.53 set-piece xG but only four goals, showing regular opportunities still looking for finishing reward. Only three teams attempt more set-piece shots. Keane is one of the main targets. Six of his 11 efforts are headers and he continues to start every match, giving full exposure to corner and free-kick routines.
Forest limit open-play threat better than set-piece disruption. They allow 13.67 shots and five shots on target per away match. They are fifth highest for set-piece xGA against. Only two sides face fewer set-piece shots and only West Ham concede fewer goals from those situations, which indicates the shots they do allow tend to be dangerous.
Everton take 5.57 corners per home match and load the penalty area with height. Keane’s role, volume trends and set-piece reliance support at least one attempt from the centre back.
- Best Bet: Michael Keane over 0.5 shots at 4/5 with 888
Newcastle vs Burnley
St James Park hosts Newcastle United against Burnley in the Premier League. Newcastle approach this fixture with sustained attacking pressure, strong territorial control and consistent set-piece output. Their home process builds volume through corners, wide free kicks and second-ball entries into the box.
Malick Thiaw holds a fixed role as a starting centre back, with ten starts from eleven league matches and full ninety minutes in nine. His involvement in attacking set plays continues to rise.
Thiaw has produced at least one shot in seven of those ten starts. Eight of his ten attempts have been headers, showing a direct focus on targeted aerial delivery toward him. Attempts have arrived in a wide mix of games against Arsenal, Tottenham, Fulham, Nottingham Forest, Everton and Brentford. Newcastle generate frequent box entries and hold strong non-penalty xG ratios which extend shooting opportunity to centre backs.
Burnley’s defensive profile increases the likelihood of pressure. They hold the highest xGA from set pieces in the division. Only three sides concede more shots from those situations. Their shape drops deep under pressure and allows repeated deliveries into the area. Burnley also face high concession rates inside the box which aligns with Thiaw’s shooting zones.
Game state also suits action late on. Newcastle drive territory at home and push numbers forward when matches remain level or narrow. Thiaw’s aerial presence gives a regular threat across early routines and additional corners in closing periods.
Malick Thiaw 1+ shot holds strong support from his recent output, starting role, aerial profile and the opponent’s set-piece weakness.
- Best Bet: Malick Thiaw over 0.5 shots on target at 5/2 with Paddy
Further Reading
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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- Source: https://mrfixitstips.co.uk/shots-on-target-betting-accumulator-burnley-set-piece-woes-continue/
