The co-main event of UFC 316 in Newark on June 7 features bantamweight champion Julianna Peña facing off against two-time Olympic judo gold medalist Kayla Harrison. This bout has the potential to redefine a division still in need of a long-term star after Amanda Nunes’ departure. Here’s my prediction for Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison.
**Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison Preview**
At 35, Pena holds a 13-5 record with 3 knockouts, 6 submissions, and 4 decision victories. Fighting from Chicago, the 5 ft 6 in champion has a 69 in reach, an orthodox stance, and maintains a relentless pace with a high volume of strikes and takedowns. She recaptured her title at UFC 307 with a split decision win over Raquel Pennington, but most media scorecards thought she lost, providing fuel for doubters but also showing her ability to prevail in tough, close fights.
Harrison, aged 34, stands 5 ft 8 in with a 66 in reach. Her record of 18-1 includes 6 knockouts, 7 submissions, and 5 decisions, with a 72% finish rate. Since moving from the PFL to the UFC last year, she has gone 2-0, including a unanimous decision against Ketlen Vieira to earn this title shot. A sixth-degree judoka, Harrison combines inside trips and hip throws with dominant top control, achieving double-digit ground strikes in 11 of her last 14 matches.
Key questions in the lead-up:
– **Weight management:** Harrison admitted to health issues while cutting to 135 lbs for UFC 307. Should the weight cut drain her again, Peña’s superior cardio after the first 15 minutes could alter the fight’s momentum.
– **Peña’s durability:** Since 2020, while she has been knocked down several times, Peña has only lost once when it went to the canvas against Nunes in 2022. Her effective scrambling game forced Nunes into desperate shots during their first meeting and might challenge Harrison if she cannot secure dominant positions for long.
Harrison is a southpaw, using short left hands and kicks to enter clinches. While her strike differential benefits from opponents being under her control, inside boxing exchanges could be unpredictable.
**Betting Insights**
Harrison opened as a heavy favorite with odds holding steady, Harrison at -750, Peña at +525. For those exploring props:
– **Method markets:** Harrison by decision is around +200, by submission +125, and by knockout/technical knockout +300. Peña by decision is at +1100, by knockout +2000, and by submission +1200.
– **Fight to Go the Distance:** Yes is +165, No is -235.
– **Live angles:** Peña’s comeback against Nunes demonstrated how her odds can improve after early setbacks. Should Harrison dominate early but fail to finish, Peña’s live odds may appeal to value hunters.
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**Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison Prediction**
Look for Harrison to set a fast tempo early, securing a clinch and testing Peña’s stability with outside trips. Peña’s solid defense will challenge Harrison more than Vieira did, and the champion’s jab-overhand combo might find its mark as the challenger engages. Even so, Harrison’s top-side pressure, shoulder-pin control, and guard-passing ability should help her secure the first two rounds.
The decisive phase is in rounds 3 and 4. If Harrison’s stamina persists despite the weight cut, she could replicate her performance against Vieira, combining knee-on-belly strikes with careful wrist rides to avoid Peña’s escapes. Should Harrison tire, Peña could gain the upper hand, increasing her strike volume, standing up, and potentially looking for a front-headlock. Nevertheless, Harrison’s team at American Top Team has spent eight weeks preparing for such scenarios.
My prediction is **Kayla Harrison by fourth-round TKO**. Her early positional advantage will deplete Peña’s energy, and once Peña exposes herself under fatigue, Harrison’s elbows from head-and-arm control could prompt the referee to stop the fight. Although Peña remains dangerous with her resilience and submission skills, the matchup favors the tenacious wrestler with a slight age advantage.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com
