The co-main event of UFC 316 in Newark on June 7 features bantamweight champion Julianna Peña against two-time Olympic judo gold medalist Kayla Harrison. This bout has the potential to redefine a division seeking a new star following Amanda Nunes’ departure. Here’s a prediction for Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison.
Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison Preview
Peña, aged 35, holds a record of 13-5 with 3 knockouts, 6 submissions, and 4 decision victories. Based in Chicago, the 5 ft 6 in champion has a 69-inch reach and fights with an orthodox stance. She is known for her relentless pace that produces a high volume of strikes and takedowns. She regained her title at UFC 307 with a split decision over Raquel Pennington, despite most media scores suggesting she lost. This result fuels her critics but also shows her ability to excel in close, messy fights.
Harrison, 34, stands 5 ft 8 in with a 66-inch reach. Her record is 18-1, including 6 knockouts, 7 submissions, and 5 decision wins, giving her a 72% finish rate. Since transitioning from the PFL to the UFC last year, she holds a 2-0 record, including a unanimous decision over Ketlen Vieira. A sixth-degree judoka, Harrison integrates inside trips and hip throws into dominant top control, achieving double-digit ground strikes in 11 of her last 14 fights.
The fight buildup centers on two questions:
Weight management: Harrison confessed to “peeing blood” to make 135 lb for UFC 307. If cutting weight strains her again, Peña’s superior cardio beyond 15 minutes could shift the momentum.
Peña’s durability: Since 2020, she has been knocked down several times but only failed to recover against Nunes in 2022. Her scrambling forced Amanda into desperation shots in their first bout, which could challenge Harrison if she cannot maintain long periods of control.
Standing, Harrison fights southpaw, using short lefts and kicks primarily to clinch. Her positive strike differential is due to opponents spending extensive time underneath her. However, inside boxing exchanges could be competitive in this matchup.
Betting Insights
Harrison opened as a significant favorite at sportsbooks, with odds stable at -750, while Peña is at +525. For prop bets:
Method markets: Harrison by decision is about +200, by submission +125, and by knockout/technical knockout +300. Peña by decision is at +1100, by knockout +2000, and by submission +1200.
Fight to Go the Distance: Yes is +165, No is -235
Live angles: Peña’s comeback against Nunes demonstrated how her odds can lengthen after early setbacks. If Harrison controls the first 10 minutes without finishing, Peña live lines may appeal to value-seekers.
Before the Peña vs. Harrison fight for the women’s bantamweight title, take advantage of our BetMGM bonus code for wagering. New users at BetMGM can receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first bet loses. Click the Claim Bonus button and sign up with code ATSBONUS.
Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison Prediction
Expect Harrison to start aggressively, securing clinches and testing Peña’s balance with outside trips. Peña’s strong defense and wide stance will force Harrison to exert more effort than against Vieira, and Peña might land jabs and overhands as Harrison attempts takedowns. Nonetheless, Harrison’s pressure from the top, shoulder-pin control, and guard-passing abilities should win her the first two rounds.
Rounds 3 and 4 are pivotal. If Harrison maintains energy post-weight cut, she can replicate her Vieira strategy, combining knee-on-belly strikes with cautious wrist control to prevent Peña’s escapes. If she tires, Peña will capitalize with volume, standing from frames, and potentially searching for a front-headlock. However, Harrison’s team at American Top Team has rigorously prepared for this with eight weeks of focused mat return drills.
My prediction is Kayla Harrison by fourth-round TKO. Her early positional control will deplete Peña’s energy for scrambles, and once Peña is fatigued and gives up position, Harrison’s elbows from head-and-arm control could prompt a referee stoppage. While Peña remains a threat due to her resilience and submission skills, the match favors the stronger wrestler with a slight age advantage.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com
