The co-main event of UFC 316 in Newark on June 7 features a match between reigning bantamweight champion Julianna Peña and two-time Olympic judo gold medalist Kayla Harrison. This bout has the potential to redefine a division still seeking a long-term star following Amanda Nunes’ departure. Here is a prediction for the Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison fight.
**Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison Preview**
Peña, 35, holds a record of 13-5, with 3 knockouts, 6 submissions, and 4 decision wins. Fighting out of Chicago, she stands 5 ft 6 in with a 69 in reach and an orthodox stance, known for her relentless pace and high volume of strikes and takedowns. She reclaimed her title at UFC 307 via split decision over Raquel Pennington, despite most media scorecards favoring Pennington, proving her resilience in close contests.
Harrison is 34, standing 5 ft 8 in with a 66 in reach. Her record is 18-1, with 6 knockouts, 7 submissions, and 5 decisions, boasting a 72% finish rate. Since joining the UFC from the PFL, she is 2-0, including a unanimous decision over Ketlen Vieira. A sixth-degree judoka, Harrison combines inside trips and hip throws with dominant top control, achieving double-digit ground strikes in 11 of her last 14 bouts.
The build-up has focused on two main questions:
– **Weight management:** Harrison admitted to health issues making 135 lb for UFC 307. If weight cutting affects her this time, Peña’s superior cardio could turn the fight.
– **Peña’s durability:** Since 2020, she has been knocked down several times but only lost via decision to Nunes in 2022. Her scrambling ability forced Nunes into desperation, which could challenge Harrison if control is not maintained.
On the feet, Harrison, a southpaw, throws short left punches and kicks primarily to initiate clinches. Her positive strike differential results from opponents spending extended time grounded. Still, inside boxing exchanges could be competitive in this fight.
**Betting Insights**
Sportsbooks have Harrison as a strong favorite, steady at −750, with Peña at +525. Notable prop bets include:
– **Method markets:** Harrison by decision at +200, by submission at +125, by knockout/technical knockout at +300. Peña by decision at +1100, by knockout at +2000, and by submission at +1200.
– **Fight to Go the Distance:** Yes at +165, No at -235.
– **Live angles:** Peña’s comeback over Nunes showed her odds can shift post-adversity. If Harrison dominates initially without finishing, Peña’s live odds may appeal to value-seekers.
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**Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison Prediction**
Expect Harrison to set a fast pace early, secure body clinches, and test Peña’s balance with trips. Peña’s solid defense and wide base will challenge Harrison beyond her previous bout with Vieira, and the champion’s jab-overhand combo might connect during takedown attempts. However, Harrison’s pressure, shoulder-pin control, and guard passing should secure the early rounds.
The critical phase is rounds 3 and 4. If Harrison maintains her energy post-weight cut, she could replicate her Vieira performance with effective ground strikes and control. But if she tires, Peña will pressure relentlessly, attempting stand-ups and potentially a front-headlock. Nevertheless, Harrison’s camp at American Top Team has rigorously prepared for such scenarios with extensive training.
My prediction is **Kayla Harrison by fourth-round TKO**. Early dominance will exhaust Peña’s defenses, and once the champion is fatigued, Harrison’s elbows can prompt a stoppage from the referee. While Peña’s heart and submission skills make her a worthy contender, the matchup favors the younger, stronger wrestler.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com
