The Cincinnati Reds will visit the St. Louis Cardinals on June 22, 2025, for a crucial National League Central clash. Both teams are mid-table, the Cardinals at 42-35 and the Reds at 39-38. This game is the third in their series, with mounting pressure as neither team is leading the division.
The Cardinals’ recent defeat to the Reds highlighted their struggles against this divisional opponent. While St. Louis’s offense is inconsistent, ranking 12th overall but 4th in team batting average, they are 23rd in home runs, relying more on contact hitting than power.
Miles Mikolas is expected to start for St. Louis. Although ranked as the 189th best starting pitcher in MLB, he shows potential with a 4-4 record and a 4.35 ERA. Projections indicate he might perform better than his stats suggest, as his 3.72 FIP implies some bad luck this season. Mikolas will face a Reds lineup prone to strikeouts, which could suit his low-strikeout style.
For Cincinnati, Andrew Abbott has been impressive with a 1.84 ERA and a 6-1 record. Despite some favorable outcomes—his xFIP is 3.92—his run prevention is key for the Reds.
This game offers an intriguing duel between Mikolas’s average showing and Abbott’s excellent form. With both teams projected to score around 4.75 runs, this clash promises to be closely contested, presenting strategic betting opportunities.
Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:
Andrew Abbott has reduced his four-seam fastball usage by 5.8% this season (47.7%) compared to last year (53.5%).
- Fastballs are easier to hit and yield fewer strikeouts, so using them less can make a pitcher more effective.
Will Benson has recently increased his exit velocity, with a 100.8-mph average in the past week, up from his seasonal 93.6-mph average.
- Hitting the ball harder raises the likelihood of home runs or hits landing in fair territory before fielders can reach them.
The projection system (THE BAT X) suggests a .308 wOBA for the Reds’ offense in today’s game, lower than their .319 overall projected rate, indicating this lineup might be slightly weakened.
- Betting lines are often based on team quality for the season. If today’s lineup is weaker, there might be value in markets not accounting for this reduced offensive capability.
Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:
Miles Mikolas’s fastball velocity this season is 91.5 mph, a 1.6-mph drop from last year’s 93.1 mph.
- Velocity is crucial for fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so declining velocity can lead to poorer results.
Batters like Nolan Arenado, who hit many groundballs, usually perform worse against pitchers like Andrew Abbott who also induce groundballs.
- This is due to the swing plane interaction with the pitch trajectory, possibly reducing performance across various metrics and revealing hidden value.
The St. Louis Cardinals hitters rank 26th in MLB for power this year based on their 7.5% Barrel%.
- Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball with optimal exit velocity and launch angle, indicating underlying power.
Game Trends
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com
