Strikeouts Prop Odds:
Strikeouts 3.5 over: -147
Strikeouts 3.5 under: 115
Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop
Francisco Alvarez, the Mets’s expected catcher today, grades out as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Because of his reverse platoon split, Paul Blackburn will hold the advantage being matched up with 6 bats in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in this outing.
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Paul Blackburn must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls a lot since the start of last season: 66.9% of the time, ranking in the 93rd percentile.
Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Shots Prop
Recording 80.7 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Paul Blackburn falls in the 18th percentile.
The #9 park in the league for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.
According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for hitting on the schedule today.
Considering that groundball batters hold a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Paul Blackburn and his 44.3% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard spot in today’s outing squaring off against 3 opposing GB bats.
Paul Blackburn will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.
Paul Blackburn is projected to have 3.7 Strikeouts in today’s game.
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- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/props/paul-blackburn-10005560/398971/
