Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 6/19/2025 – SCCG Management

June 19, 2025 – 2:10 am

The Baltimore Orioles head to George M. Steinbrenner Field to face the Tampa Bay Rays on June 19, 2025, marking the fourth game of their series. The Rays are currently 41-33, solidly positioned in the American League East, while the Orioles are struggling at 31-42.

In their recent matchup, the Rays outperformed the Orioles, maintaining their strong season performance. Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen, with a 6-4 record and a remarkable 2.55 ERA, is set to start. Ranked as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB, Rasmussen may encounter challenges ahead as his xFIP of 3.41 suggests potential regression. Despite this, his low 5.3% walk rate gives him an edge against the Orioles’ less patient lineup.

Baltimore’s Charlie Morton, with a 3-7 record and a concerning 6.05 ERA, takes the mound. Even though his xFIP indicates some bad luck, his overall performance has been lacking, especially against a Rays offense ranked 15th in MLB, bolstered by the top ranking in stolen bases.

The Rays have -150 odds, with a projected team total of 4.60 runs. This matchup gives Tampa Bay an opportunity to capitalize on their strengths, particularly with Rasmussen pitching, making them a team to watch.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles offense might improve in future games, as the leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks them as the 6th-unluckiest offense this year.

If teams underperform relative to their talent, markets might undervalue them, even though they’re likely to improve soon.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen as the 10th-best among all MLB teams.

Bettors often overlook the bullpen, but a strong one can make matchups tougher for opponents and reduce game runs.

Game Trends

The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 55 games (+10.70 Units / 15% ROI)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 away games (+9.09 Units / 23% ROI)