The horse racing broadcaster picks out his selections from the best of the flat and jumps racing around the UK on Saturday.
After Goldolphin’s blue letter weekend at Newmarket and Churchill Downs, it has been the turn of Coolmore to dominate the events at Chester this week. Aidan O’Brien has been the driving force behind the trials on the Roodee at Lingfield this weekend maintaining the relevance of their Classic trial tags.
In truth, their runners in these races tend to be supporting actors rather than those taking leading roles in the Derby or Oaks, but they are usually good enough to take care of business at shortish prices.
As such, the more appealing betting opportunities largely take place away from Lingfield, with the big handicap of the weekend being the Schweppes Victoria Cup at Ascot. MYAL 15/2 (14:40 Ascot) is still one to be on the right side of after his solid win at Haydock. His previous run in the Spring Mile at Doncaster was a big effort, being close to a strong pace over a trip that also stretched his stamina. He has been a real credit to Steph Hollinshead and while being drawn 19 means he will be committed to the stands side, he may still have more to offer as the handicapper continues to struggle to keep up with him.
Running just over half an hour later, FIREBLADE 9/2 (15:15 Ascot) won well at Leicester on his first start for Dylan Cunha having left John Gosden. He handled the quick ground well that day and the race has worked out well with the second and sixth both scoring next time. Cunha is making a name for himself as a very capable trainer, and the booking of William Buick riding for the stable for the first time catches the eye. With his close friend James Doyle (on board at Leicester) on the sidelines, perhaps he has a word in his ear about Fireblade’s potential!
Away from Ascot, there is a mixed card at Haydock where old boy GLORY AND FORTUNE 14/1 (13:35 Haydock) looks to have a leading chance in the Swinton Handicap Hurdle. Placed off much higher in the past, he returned to the winners’ enclosure for the first time in over three years when scoring at Chepstow last time, beating odds-on favourite Helnwein, who reopposes again here. Glory and Fortune has never looked a natural jumper, but his 2021 Christmas Hurdle second to Epatante and 2022 Betfair Hurdle win off an 11lb higher mark than here shows he has a big engine. If age has not eroded the sparkplugs, he can continue the recent upturn in fortunes of the Lacey yard.
ON TO THE ROUGE 11/4 (14:10 Haydock) could be the answer to the bumper for Peter Niven. I called him winning at Market Rasen, where he showed a decent turn of foot to readily take care of the opposition. A home bred from the family of Clever Cookie, he can follow up at the expense of Irish raider Jules Winfield, who also impressed on debut at Ballinrobe.
Finally, back at Lingfield GREAT GENERATION 7/1 (15:35 Lingfield) makes plenty of appeal in the Listed Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes. A dual Group 3 winner last season, including this race last year, she will appreciate the return to competing against her own sex after running in a Group 2 against the boys last time. She met trouble when she won here last season and was value for more than the winning margin, and with Spiritual likely to set a decent pace she can find more room this year.
STATS ALL FOLKS
A different angle this week, with a numbers view of the Gosden decision to go to ‘best available’ jockey rather than have Kieran Shoemark as the stable’s No. 1.
The decision was clearly prompted by the ride given to Field of Gold in the 2000 Guineas, where if Kieran had his time again he would make more of an attempt to cover William Buick’s move on Ruling Court. The key point of the race was how slowly they had gone to halfway and therefore how much energy all the runners had left to expend. When horses are all going to finish off strongly, then a cheap ¾ length given can be extremely expensive to recover and Field of Gold and Shoemark just ran out of time, with the speed at which they were closing late on only rubbing salt into the wounds and increasing the clamour from disgruntled supporters. Given a more evenly run race, it is highly likely Field of Gold would have won the Guineas, but these decisions are made at 40mph and should that one ride have had such ramifications?
The Gosden jockey role has itself become disjointed in recent seasons, with many owners already choosing to have their own riders rather than being dictated to by trainer retainers. Bjorn Neilsen, Normandie Stud, Shadwell, Godolphin and Cheveley Park already fell into that category, and if Juddmonte made it plain that post-Field of Gold they were now also going to follow suit then there really wasn’t a No. 1 role anyway.
The fact is that 2024 was tough for Kieran in his bid to establish himself as Clarehaven’s No. 1. His record of 43 winners from 230 rides for Gosden yielded an Actual/Expected of 0.85, while the stable as a whole were 110/579 for an A/E of 0.92 – still a poor return but better than when Shoemark was on board.
However, 2025 had started differently. Althought the yard’s overall fortunes had in fact got worse (20/118, A/E 0.82), Shoemark had very much bucked the trend – 14/47 with a healthy A/E of 1.27. Those of you quick with maths will have worked out that the yard record with all other riders is therefore a miserly 6/71, and a quite woeful A/E of 0.45.
Perhaps it was the general malaise of the yard or one mistake in a high-profile race that contributed to the decision, but the stats very much suggest that Kieran Shoemark was relieved of his duties at the time he had been executing them best.
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- Source: https://blog.betway.com/horse-racing/richard-hoiles-5-saturday-tips-from-ascot-lingfield-and-haydock/
