On May 10, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will face off against the Atlanta Braves at PNC Park in a game that could be pivotal for both clubs. The Pirates, currently holding a 13-26 record, are mired in a tough season, whereas the Braves, sitting at 18-20, are just below the .500 mark and looking to turn things around. Pittsburgh pulled off an unexpected win over Atlanta last night, giving them momentum heading into this matchup.
Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Pirates. Despite posting a solid 3.18 ERA, he ranks just 213th among MLB starting pitchers, highlighting some underlying concerns. His xFIP of 3.90 suggests regression may be on the horizon. With only a 4.7 projected strikeout rate and 1.7 walks expected today, Heaney will need to tread carefully against a Braves offense ranked 16th overall in MLB.
For Atlanta, AJ Smith-Shawver takes the mound. While his 3.00 ERA looks respectable, his 4.01 xFIP implies he’s been fortunate. He projects to pitch slightly less than five innings in this outing. Though he has a more average strikeout rate compared to Heaney, he’ll be facing a Pirates lineup ranked 28th in MLB — one that may struggle to punish his mistakes.
The odds currently have Pittsburgh as the underdog at +120, with Atlanta favored at -140. Oddsmakers have set the over/under at 8.5 runs, suggesting a moderate scoring environment despite both teams’ offensive struggles this season.
Atlanta Braves Insights
– AJ Smith-Shawver is known for generating a high percentage of fly balls (38.7%), which may work to his advantage at PNC Park — a stadium ranked 25th in home run-friendliness.
– This favorable park factor could help mitigate his vulnerabilities, potentially leading to better results than expected.
– Catcher Sean Murphy’s Barrel% — a key metric indicating how often he makes ideal contact — has dropped significantly over the past two weeks, falling from a season average of 14% to 0%.
– Ozzie Albies might struggle today. As a pull-heavy hitter (38.6% flyball rate to the pull side), the deep left-field fences at PNC Park (11th-deepest in MLB) could limit his offensive output.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
– Andrew Heaney has made a notable change this year, dropping his four-seam fastball usage by 6.1% (down from 49.9% to 43.8%).
– Since fastballs are generally easier to hit and yield fewer strikeouts, this shift could help Heaney improve his effectiveness.
– Veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen is experiencing a slump. His average exit velocity has fallen from 89 mph for the season to just 79.7 mph over the past week.
– The Pirates’ projected lineup includes three hitters with strikeout rates north of 27% — Alexander Canario, Oneil Cruz, and Matt Gorski — making them more susceptible to being overpowered by the Braves’ pitching staff.
Game Trends
– The Pirates have hit the team total Under in 22 of their last 35 games, reflecting their offensive challenges.
– The Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) team total Under in 17 of their last 26 games, indicating slow starts.
– Ke’Bryan Hayes has gone under his individual run total in 20 consecutive games, a trend bettors are likely watching closely.
Prediction: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
– Predicted Final Score: Braves 5.33, Pirates 4.69
– Date: May 10, 2025
– Venue: PNC Park
– Projected Starting Pitchers:
– Braves: AJ Smith-Shawver
– Pirates: Andrew Heaney
This matchup provides an interesting case with both teams underperforming but showcasing individual players who could make the difference. Look for a tightly contested game where the margin may come down to pitching matchups and timely hitting.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com
