Betting Markets and Wall Street Outshine Polls in Election Predictions—A New Forecasting Era?
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, betting markets and financial indicators surpassed traditional polls in accuracy, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi reflecting public sentiment favoring Trump. Wall Street’s involvement, particularly via Robinhood’s contracts, introduced new dynamics in political forecasting, signaling a potential shift in how election predictions are made.
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